Forecasting the Sales of New Pharmaceutical Products Based on Bass Model (The Study of Pharmaceutical Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange)

Sales forecasting models show how an analyst forecasts the earnings of an investment and investigates new products in the valuation process .Therefore, these models are a support system for decision-makings of important company experts, investors and managers. Accurate forecasting helps managers develop strategies, identify priorities and allocate resources optimally. In order to conduct this study, the 10-year sales information of 18 new pharmaceutical products in these companies has been used. In this study, in addition to describing the theoretical foundations of the diffusion models of new products in the market including the highly innovative Fourt-Woodlock model, the imitative Fisher-Perry model and integrated Bass diffusion model, influencing parameters are introduced. Then, the model has been tested by multiple regression in order to estimate the level of the confidence of model and its coefficients, Afterwards, based on the parameters of innovation (P) and imitation (q), the results of Bass model have been used in order to forecast the sales of new products in the pharmaceutical industry in the of companies of Tehran Stock Exchange.

Bass model, sales forecasting, knowledge-based company, valuation